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Stalemate at Gangwon FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.31 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Suwon City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 40%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights