Gangwon FC 4-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.90 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gangwon FC, 0 for Jeju United FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 57% versus Jeju United FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 36% | Jeju United FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.276 / defence 1.121 | Jeju United FC attack 0.790 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.130. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Gangwon FC games / 56 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jeju United FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gangwon FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 70% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Gangwon FC 1.86 / Jeju United FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.276 / def 1.121 | Jeju United FC attack 0.790 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 4 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 57% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 3 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.44
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
32.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.00 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 22D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 61 outings (19W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 18W 22D 21L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 19W 13D 29L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.37 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 70%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gangwon FC) and 40% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Gangwon FC's games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 40% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeju United FC 4-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.12 against Jeju United FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 20%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 36%, Jeju United FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.