Gangwon FC 1-3 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gangwon FC, 1 for FC Anyang and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with FC Anyang winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.09 xG and FC Anyang 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.050 | FC Anyang attack 0.775 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.113. Gangwon FC's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Anyang bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Gangwon FC games / 16 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | FC Anyang 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Gangwon FC 1.09 / FC Anyang 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.774 / def 1.050 | FC Anyang attack 0.775 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Anyang xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Gangwon FC 1 - 3 FC Anyang.
Where is Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 40% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gangwon FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and FC Anyang in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Gangwon FC home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.78x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 48/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.26
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.91
FC Anyang xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.91 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gangwon FC won 0-3 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
3
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 1, FC Anyang have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Anyang 0-3 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Anyang cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gangwon FC 1-3 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.09 xG and FC Anyang 0.91 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against FC Anyang attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.