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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Daegu FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 3-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.98 xG and Daegu FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 37% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 30%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights