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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat FC Anyang 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat FC Anyang 0-1 at Anyang Stadium, Relegation Group - 37, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.97 xG and Suwon City FC 1.53 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Suwon City FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.25, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 48% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 29%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 56%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Anyang's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.33 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights