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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat FC Anyang 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat FC Anyang 0-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.36 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 39% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 35%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 56%, Pohang Steelers 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Anyang's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights