🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 39%, yet in-form Pohang Steelers provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Anyang vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 15 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

FC Anyang (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Anyang Stadium, FC Anyang have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Anyang are significantly better at Anyang Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Pohang Steelers's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pohang Steelers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pohang Steelers are 0.60 PPG clear of FC Anyang in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pohang Steelers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Anyang 0W, Pohang Steelers 2W, 0D.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Pohang Steelers winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Pohang Steelers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 56% | Pohang Steelers 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.36 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.014 / defence 1.041 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.981 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.261. Data: 25 FC Anyang games / 58 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 39% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Pohang Steelers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pohang Steelers (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Anyang if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Pohang Steelers 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights