FC Anyang 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Anyang at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Incheon United encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Incheon United travel to Anyang Stadium to take on FC Anyang in K League 1 (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, FC Anyang have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, FC Anyang have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

In-Play Data

FC Anyang trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Incheon United trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Incheon United 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Anyang surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Incheon United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.88 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.133 / defence 0.972 | Incheon United attack 0.972 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.196. Incheon United's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Anyang's projected output up. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 37 games and Incheon United's last 4. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 52% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 1.93 | Draw 3.48 | Incheon United 5.14. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Anyang are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Anyang 60% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (FC Anyang 37 games, Incheon United 4) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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