FC Anyang 1-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Gwangju FC travel to Anyang Stadium to take on FC Anyang. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 June 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Anyang, 1 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.96 xG and Gwangju FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.923 / defence 1.109 | Gwangju FC attack 0.852 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.186. Data: 20 FC Anyang games / 53 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Gwangju FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Anyang 0.96 / Gwangju FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.923 / def 1.109 | Gwangju FC attack 0.852 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gwangju FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
FC Anyang 1 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 30% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Anyang and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Gwangju FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Gwangju FC away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 0.92x the league average against Gwangju FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
30%
3.38
32%
3.08
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.08
1.12
Gwangju FC xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.12 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
3
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out FC Anyang 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat FC Anyang 1-2 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.96 xG and Gwangju FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Gwangju FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.