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FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 2-2 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. It was 1-0 at the break, with 3 further goals after it. Scorers: Choi Geon-Joo (1') · G. Lee (64') · Kim Joo-Chan (70') · Airton Moises (76'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.01 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 28% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 60% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Anyang (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments