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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 10:30 UTC.

Current Form

FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L at Anyang Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for FC Anyang, 3 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 14W 7D 17L from their 38 K League 1 appearances this term. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 38 games (16%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's full-season record stands at 18W 7D 13L from 38 games. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-2 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 38 games (26%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 6). Penalty activity: FC Anyang 2/2 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3/3 this season.

Trading

FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.01 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.954 / defence 0.921 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.082 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.258. Data: 46 FC Anyang games / 46 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 28% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: FC Anyang 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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