FC Anyang 3-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Anyang have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Anyang Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Anyang, 1.10 for Daejeon Citizen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Daejeon Citizen in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Anyang lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 58% versus Daejeon Citizen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 54% | Daejeon Citizen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.34 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.884 / defence 1.035 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.100 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.254. Data: 26 FC Anyang games / 59 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 35% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 35% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Anyang 1.34 / Daejeon Citizen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.884 / def 1.035 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.100 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Daejeon Citizen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
FC Anyang 3 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 35% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (2 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.88) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.10x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 26/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.94
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.77
1.43
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.43 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 8W 3D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 11W 9D 6L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 6W 5D 2L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Anyang are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.35 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 8W 3D 15L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daejeon Citizen's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.15 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Daejeon Citizen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 54%, Daejeon Citizen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Anyang) and 69% (Daejeon Citizen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Anyang's games and 69% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Anyang's matches and 69% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Daejeon Citizen 3-2 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.34 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 35% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 39%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 54%, Daejeon Citizen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with FC Anyang winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.