FC Anyang 4-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as FC Anyang welcome Daegu FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 July 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Anyang — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Anyang Stadium, FC Anyang have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Anyang carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Anyang, 0 for Daegu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 59% and Daegu FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 50% | Daegu FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.56 xG and Daegu FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.881 / defence 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 0.927 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.230. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 FC Anyang games / 55 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 43% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Daegu FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Jul 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 43% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Anyang 1.56 / Daegu FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.881 / def 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 0.927 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Daegu FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 22 July 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
FC Anyang 4 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 43% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Anyang and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are FC Anyang and Daegu FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.88) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.89
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.87
1.31
Daegu FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.31 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Anyang come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 3D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 0.64 PPG from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Anyang carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Anyang's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Anyang come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC in 68%.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Daegu FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.09 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2025, when FC Anyang won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Daegu FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Anyang at 64%, Daegu FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for FC Anyang and 82% for Daegu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 27% of games; Daegu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Anyang's games and 73% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Anyang's matches and 82% of Daegu FC's.
Do FC Anyang and Daegu FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Anyang run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Daegu FC 4-0 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.56 xG and Daegu FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.42, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 43% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 31%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 50%, Daegu FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Anyang arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.