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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as FC Anyang welcome Daegu FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 July 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Anyang — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Anyang Stadium, FC Anyang have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FC Anyang carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Anyang, 0 for Daegu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 59% and Daegu FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 50% | Daegu FC 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.56 xG and Daegu FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.881 / defence 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 0.927 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.230. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 FC Anyang games / 55 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 43% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Daegu FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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