Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 41%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Daejeon Citizen have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pohang Steelers (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Daejeon Citizen's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Pohang Steelers edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Pohang Steelers — a Pohang Steelers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 59% versus Pohang Steelers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 50% | Pohang Steelers 45%). Note also that Pohang Steelers surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Daejeon Citizen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.75 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.731 / defence 0.884 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.941 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.307. Daejeon Citizen's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 45 games and Pohang Steelers's last 45.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 23% | Draw 36% | Pohang Steelers 41%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 4.33 | Draw 2.79 | Pohang Steelers 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 70% (last 10 home games) | Pohang Steelers 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 23% | Draw 36% | Pohang Steelers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.75 / Pohang Steelers 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.731 / def 0.884 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.941 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Pohang Steelers xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 2 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 23% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.73) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (0.94x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 45 games and Pohang Steelers's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
23%
4.33
36%
2.79
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
1.84
1.09
Pohang Steelers xG
4.33
23%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.09 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 30W 23D 23L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 27L across 76 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.43 for Pohang Steelers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 18W 9D 10L from their last 37 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 14W 7D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs Pohang Steelers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.70 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won Pohang Steelers 0-3 Daejeon Citizen on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 1D 4L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
5
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 51%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daejeon Citizen) and 46% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 46% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 68% of Pohang Steelers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Daejeon Citizen 0-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.75 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.09 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.73 / defence 0.88 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 23% | Draw 36% | Pohang Steelers 41%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Pohang Steelers 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.