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Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Daejeon Citizen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. It was 0-1 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: Park Chang-Jun (44'). That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Jeju United FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Jeju United FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 24% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 44%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 63% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 55% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments