Daejeon Citizen 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daejeon Citizen face FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon World Cup Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus FC Anyang in K League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off: Monday 2 March 2026 at 05:00 UK time.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Anyang (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.60 for FC Anyang — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Daejeon Citizen's last 10 home games and FC Anyang's last 10 away games) — Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Daejeon Citizen 2–3 FC Anyang — a FC Anyang win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 60% and FC Anyang 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 55% | FC Anyang 55%). Note also that FC Anyang surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Daejeon Citizen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.47 xG and FC Anyang 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.052 / defence 0.989 | FC Anyang attack 0.953 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.306. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 33 games and FC Anyang's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.54 | Draw 3.12 | FC Anyang 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Anyang 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Daejeon Citizen 33 games, FC Anyang 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 March 2026 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.47 / FC Anyang 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.052 / def 0.989 | FC Anyang attack 0.953 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Anyang xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Monday 2 March 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.05) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.95x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 33 games and FC Anyang's last 33, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.70
1.23
FC Anyang xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.23 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 18W 11D 9L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 19 home games (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 6W 3D 10L from their last 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs FC Anyang (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or FC Anyang away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Daejeon Citizen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Daejeon Citizen 3-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 58%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daejeon Citizen) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 63% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 68% of FC Anyang's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang finished level at 1-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.47 xG and FC Anyang 1.23 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 55%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.