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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.57 xG and Suwon City FC 1.99 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Suwon City FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 31% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 48%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 60%, Suwon City FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 0.91 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights