Daegu FC 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Suwon City FC's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 2, Suwon City FC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 60% and Suwon City FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 60% | Suwon City FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.57 xG and Suwon City FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.900 / defence 1.211 | Suwon City FC attack 1.303 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.261. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Daegu FC games / 60 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Suwon City FC 2.08. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Suwon City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Daegu FC 1.57 / Suwon City FC 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.900 / def 1.211 | Suwon City FC attack 1.303 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Suwon City FC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 31% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (8 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 4 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
31%
3.26
22%
4.63
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
3.56
1.99
Suwon City FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
4%
23.81
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.99 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 13W 20D 32L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 23W 15D 27L from 65 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 0.91 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (9W 11D 12L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 8D 16L from 32 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Suwon City FC in 62%.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 20D 32L in their last 65 games (0.91 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 23W 15D 27L in their last 65 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 62%, Suwon City FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Suwon City FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Daegu FC's games and 62% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.57 xG and Suwon City FC 1.99 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Suwon City FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 31% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 48%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 60%, Suwon City FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 0.91 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.