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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights