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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Jeju United FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 45% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights