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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC and FC Anyang finished level at 2-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.46 xG and FC Anyang 1.16 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against FC Anyang attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 65%, FC Anyang 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

FC Anyang's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Anyang arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights