Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC meet at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bucheon FC 1995's record over their last 2 games: 2W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Bucheon FC 1995's favour (3.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Jeju United FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Jeju United FC — a Jeju United FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.816 / defence 1.089 | Jeju United FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.377. Data: built from Bucheon FC 1995's last 11 games and Jeju United FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.34 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.08. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 / Jeju United FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.816 / def 1.089 | Jeju United FC attack 0.882 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jeju United FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 23% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating (0.82) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.88x) against Bucheon FC 1995's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Bucheon FC 1995's last 11 games and Jeju United FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
23%
4.34
29%
3.45
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.15
1.32
Jeju United FC xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.32 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Bucheon FC 1995 have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Bucheon FC 1995 against 3.00 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Bucheon FC 1995's scoring rate against Jeju United FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 0%.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Jeju United FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Jeju United FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995 (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Jeju United FC
Early Season
❓ Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 0% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 0% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Bucheon FC 1995 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bucheon FC 1995 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Jeju United FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Jeju United FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bucheon FC 1995 3.00 PPG, Jeju United FC 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.