Red card controversy as Gimcheon Sangmu FC claim a 0-2 win.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. It was 0-1 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. A red card featured along the way. Scorers: Kim Joo-Chan (30') · Byeon Jun-Soo (83'). That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC controlled the ball (58%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they converted the territory into the win the numbers expected. Gimcheon Sangmu FC shot more often (15 to 10, 4 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (0-1 at the interval). 1 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics