Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bucheon FC 1995 take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Gimcheon Sangmu FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Bucheon FC 1995.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Bucheon FC 1995 winning.
It is worth noting that Gimcheon Sangmu FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Bucheon FC 1995 show 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings in K League 1. Attacking returns: 2.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 1-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 2 games (50%). Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards per game.
The visitors have accumulated 18W 7D 13L from their 38 K League 1 appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-2 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 38 games (26%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game.
Bucheon FC 1995 have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.00 per game versus 1.60 for the visitors. Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 1). Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Bucheon FC 1995 score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 26%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Gimcheon Sangmu FC have been awarded 3 penalties this season (3 scored).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.898 / defence 1.111 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.167. Data: 9 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 42 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead the H2H ledger, but Bucheon FC 1995 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Managers: Bucheon FC 1995 (Jung Gap-Seok) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Seung-jin Joo) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 6W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bucheon FC 1995 5 – 15 Gimcheon Sangmu FC • H2H markets: BTTS 38% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Bucheon FC 1995 12% / Draw 12% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 75% • Historical edge: Gimcheon Sangmu FC dominant — 6W from 8 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (historical win rate 75%) but Poisson model rates Draw as more likely (home 31% / draw 35% / away 34%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.11 (35% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 38%, Poisson probability 45% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W • Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L • Bucheon FC 1995 home split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | CS 1 • Gimcheon Sangmu FC away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Bucheon FC 1995 lead by 1.50 PPG (3.00 vs 1.50) • xG vs form (Bucheon FC 1995): Poisson projects 1.03 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC): Poisson projects 1.08 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.11 (35% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 45% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Bucheon FC 1995 on PPG but Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC higher (34% vs 31% for Bucheon FC 1995) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.898 / def 1.111 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.833 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
• Record (8 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 6W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bucheon FC 1995 5 – 15 Gimcheon Sangmu FC • H2H markets: BTTS 38% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Bucheon FC 1995 12% / Draw 12% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 75% • Historical edge: Gimcheon Sangmu FC dominant — 6W from 8 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (historical win rate 75%) but Poisson model rates Draw as more likely (home 31% / draw 35% / away 34%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.11 (35% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 38%, Poisson probability 45% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
• Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W • Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L • Bucheon FC 1995 home split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | CS 1 • Gimcheon Sangmu FC away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Bucheon FC 1995 lead by 1.50 PPG (3.00 vs 1.50) • xG vs form (Bucheon FC 1995): Poisson projects 1.03 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC): Poisson projects 1.08 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.11 (35% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 45% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Bucheon FC 1995 on PPG but Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC higher (34% vs 31% for Bucheon FC 1995) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture