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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEOM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat NEOM 1-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.82 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.67, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 57%, Al-Nassr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.86. That form edge translated into the three points. NEOM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights