NEOM 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEOM and Al-Nassr meet at King Khalid Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:50 UTC.
Form
NEOM (all games): 4W 1D 2L across 7 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEOM's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at King Khalid Sports City this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Khalid Sports City this season.
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Nassr are 0.64 PPG clear of NEOM in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.86). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
NEOM — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 71% versus Al-Nassr 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 57% | Al-Nassr 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 0.82 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.792 / defence 1.082 | Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / defence 0.668. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.536. NEOM's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.668 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 NEOM games / 41 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Nassr 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 67% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG NEOM 0.82 / Al-Nassr 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.792 / def 1.082 | Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / def 0.668 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.536 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Al-Nassr xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Nassr kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 13:50 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Nassr?
NEOM 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Nassr part of?
NEOM vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 12% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both NEOM and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEOM and Al-Nassr in?
NEOM (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NEOM's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.33x) against NEOM's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
12%
8.38
20%
5.13
69%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
NEOM xG
Total xG
3.04
2.22
Al-Nassr xG
8.38
12%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
1.46
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
11%
9.21
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
1%
77.11
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for NEOM and 2.22 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEOM come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 3.00 PPG from 7 outings (7W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of NEOM — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NEOM's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NEOM are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 3.29 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 7W 0D 0L in their last 7 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 3.00 PPG.
Have NEOM or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
0
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Nassr?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (NEOM) and 0% (Al-Nassr) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for NEOM and 33% for Al-Nassr.
On the defensive side: NEOM keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of NEOM's recent matches and 0% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of NEOM's recent games and 33% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEOM and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEOM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat NEOM 1-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.82 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.67, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 57%, Al-Nassr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.86. That form edge translated into the three points. NEOM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.