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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out NEOM 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat NEOM 1-2 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.91 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 64%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights