🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as NEOM welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to King Khalid Sports City. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEOM at King Khalid Sports City this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of NEOM's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

In-Play Data

NEOM trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 79% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEOM 64% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 0.91 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.706 / defence 1.171 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.497 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.448. NEOM's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 NEOM games / 48 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: NEOM 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 9.09 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 71% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights