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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEOM and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 30, as NEOM and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.33 xG and Al-Hazm 1.00 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Al-Hazm attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 28%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 55%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEOM 1.34 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights