🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out NEOM 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat NEOM 0-1 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.57 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NEOM fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 67%, Al-Fateh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights