NEOM 0-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Khalid Sports City plays host to NEOM versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sports City: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Pro League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.17 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Khalid Sports City this season.
Al-Fateh have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for NEOM, 1.40 for Al-Fateh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NEOM have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Al-Fateh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 83% and Al-Fateh 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 67% | Al-Fateh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.816 / defence 1.205 | Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.480. Data: 12 NEOM games / 46 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 2.22. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 83% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG NEOM 1.24 / Al-Fateh 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.816 / def 1.205 | Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Fateh kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
NEOM 0 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Fateh part of?
NEOM vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 30% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NEOM and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEOM and Al-Fateh in?
NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEOM's attack at 0.82x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.88x) against NEOM's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
30%
3.34
25%
4.03
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.81
1.57
Al-Fateh xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
6%
16.08
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for NEOM and 1.57 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 2D 4L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NEOM are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
NEOM are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.25 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Fateh away?
NEOM's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for NEOM, 67% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (NEOM) and 50% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of NEOM's games and 67% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of NEOM's matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's.
Do NEOM and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out NEOM 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat NEOM 0-1 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.57 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NEOM fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 67%, Al-Fateh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.