🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

NEOM and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 34, as NEOM and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 46%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 54%, Al-Ettifaq 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEOM 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights