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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-3 hammering of NEOM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat NEOM 0-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.72 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.78 / defence 0.63, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 19% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights