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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Khalid Sports City to face NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

NEOM have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEOM at King Khalid Sports City this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.40 PPG clear of NEOM in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NEOM, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

NEOM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 75% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.725 / defence 1.137 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.775 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.475. NEOM's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 NEOM games / 50 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: NEOM 19% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.

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