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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Damac 2-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.06 xG and Al-Nassr 1.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Al-Nassr attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 54%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Nassr 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights