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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.95 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.03 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.68 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 62%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 49%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights