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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Full Analysis

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Damac have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 1W 3D 6L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Damac in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Damac half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 55% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 49% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.95 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.675 / defence 0.967 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.455 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.443. Damac's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Damac games / 47 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Damac 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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