Damac vs Al-Fayha – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Damac and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 1.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights