Damac vs Al-Fayha – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Damac's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Damac xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Damac and 0.96 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.