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Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Damac 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.50 xG and Al-Fateh 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 34%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights