Damac 0-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 May 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Damac) versus 1.40 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Damac, 2 for Al-Fateh and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 54% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Fateh 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.50 xG and Al-Fateh 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.810 / defence 0.950 | Al-Fateh attack 1.007 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.421. Data: 66 Damac games / 66 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 34%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Damac 1.50 / Al-Fateh 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.810 / def 0.950 | Al-Fateh attack 1.007 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Damac (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al-Fateh xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:15 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 0 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Record (7 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.81) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.01
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Damac xG
Total xG
2.86
1.36
Al-Fateh xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Damac and 1.36 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 19W 19D 28L from 66 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 30L across 66 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 12W 10D 11L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 9W 7D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 74%.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 19D 28L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Damac's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Damac at 54%, Al-Fateh at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Damac and 73% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Damac's games and 76% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Damac's matches and 73% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.50 xG and Al-Fateh 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 34%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.