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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Damac 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.71 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.64, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 17% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights