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Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wehda Club beat Al-Raed 3-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.49 xG and Al-Raed 2.02 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.86 / defence 1.45 against Al-Raed attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 50%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Raed's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.88 PPG, Al-Raed 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights