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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Wehda Club.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Wehda Club 0-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 71%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights