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Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wehda Club beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 2.25 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.39 against Al-Fateh attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 32% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 47%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.02 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights