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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh meet at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:25 UTC.

Form

Al Wehda Club (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this season.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 2.00 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Fateh in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Wehda Club lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 59% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Fateh 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.962 / defence 1.387 | Al-Fateh attack 1.144 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.421. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Al Wehda Club games / 64 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 32% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.12 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fateh 2.13. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Fateh 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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