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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Wehda Club 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 2.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights