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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Full Analysis

King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 17:20 UTC.

Current Form

Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Wehda Club 0W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 58% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.937 / defence 1.375 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.117 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.342. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Al Wehda Club games / 62 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.

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