Al Taawon 6-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Taawon Arena plays host to Al Taawon versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 16:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 4W 1D 5L at Al Taawon Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Damac (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al Taawon's favour (1.60 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Taawon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Damac managing just 0 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 3–0 with Al Taawon winning.
The historical record gives Al Taawon a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 42% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Damac 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.66 xG and Damac 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.131 / defence 1.154 | Damac attack 0.862 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.507. Data: 38 Al Taawon games / 38 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 24% | Damac 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 50% | Damac 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 16:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 24% | Damac 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Taawon 1.66 / Damac 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.131 / def 1.154 | Damac attack 0.862 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Damac xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Damac kick off?
Al Taawon vs Damac kicked off at 16:10 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Al Taawon 6 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Taawon vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Damac part of?
Al Taawon vs Damac is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 42% chance of winning, Damac a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Taawon and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
Record (8 meetings): Al Taawon 4W | Draws 4 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.13) and Damac's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.86x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.25
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.16
1.50
Damac xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.50 for Damac, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 9D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.95 PPG from 38 outings (9W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.08 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Damac away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.44 PPG; Damac away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Damac in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Damac?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon have failed to score in 28% of games; Damac in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 6-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.66 xG and Damac 1.50 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 42% | Draw 24% | Damac 35%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Damac 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.